Last month’s Oscar nominations brought a few welcome surprises, with Nickel Boys receiving much-deserved recognition in Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay. However, the Academy frequently garners too many congratulations for nominating great films just to push them aside come awards night. Another surprise was I’m Still Here, which snuck into a nomination for Best Picture on top of its more expected selections in Best Internation Feature and Fernanda Torres in Best Actress, and it should pose a real threat to Emilia Pérez in Best International Feature.

With this in mind, here is what to expect on Oscar Sunday in less than two weeks:

Anora is currently the frontrunner to win Best Picture with significant PGA and DGA wins, although surprises are always possible; Conclave, I’m Still Here, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unkown are all potential upsets. Apologies to Wicked fans.

Emilia Pérez seemed strong after Oscar nominations, receiving the most of any film (13). But its extreme controversy with Karla Sofia Gascón’s many bigoted tweets and subsequent public spiraling have effectively ended any Best Picture chances, even if it still has a chance to win Best International Feature.

Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña are locks in the supporting actor and actress categories, and Adrien Brody is likely to win Best Actor. Best Actress is an exciting category with no candidate guaranteed to win, although I’m predicting a Mikey Madison win regardless of who wins at the SAGs.

Wicked will likely win Best Costume Design and Best Production Design for its spectacular sets (not sarcasm). 

Conclave is poised to win Best Adapted Screenplay and has the likeliest case to upset in Best Picture, and could even upset The Brutalist for Best Score.

Awards, awards, awards, but everyone is definitely wondering what I think of each movie nominated for Best Picture, so here’s my personal ranking:

  1. Emilia Pérez

The worst movie by far in the bunch. A truly idiotic piece of musical garbage. I have yet to meet anyone who likes this film.

 

  1. Wicked

For a longer review, look here. This is the fan favorite for people who saw less than three movies in theaters this past year. 

 

  1. Conclave

Rather dull.

 

  1. The Substance

I am genuinely surprised that this film was nominated for Best Picture despite consistently being in the awards conversation. The Academy tends to avoid the horror genre, especially when it is this gory. The film is a fun and intense watch, and it thrashes viewers with its straightforward message, which is more suffocating than thoughtful.

 

  1. Dune: Part Two

Don’t be fooled by this being as high as six on my list, I do not care for the Dune series.

 

  1. I’m Still Here

Director Walter Salles covers the oppression of Brazil’s military dictatorship in the 70s and on through the experiences of a mother who devotes herself to learning the truth of her husband’s forced disappearance. It could be a moving film if its emotions weren’t so musically manufactured, often feeling unnatural. 

 

  1. Anora

Last year’s Palme d’Or winner is the funny and flashy story of a young woman, Anora, who has the chance of a new life through a rapid marriage to an extremely wealthy but immature young Russian man. Sean Baker, the director, explores Anora’s relationships, but the film is ultimately superficial, more to exploit than connect us with the exploited.  

 

  1. The Brutalist

Brady Corbet is a talented director with three feature films to his name. In 2015’s The Childhood of a Leader, he simplifies his work due to his desire to create a historical spectacle out of it with a silly epilogue. Corbet runs into a similar issue with The Brutalist but on an even grander scale. These two films do not necessarily have to dumb down his characters and their plights, but his historical focus generally acts as a fixation that only has one input and output, putting a tight box around the world. 

 

  1. A Complete Unkown 

The Timothée Chalamet-starring Bob Dylan biopic focuses on the music legend’s rise to fame in the ’60s. About halfway through the film, the film switches from 1961 to 1965 to avoid a straightforward historical retelling. It balances the commercial convention one expects from a musical biopic by allowing the music to breathe, embodying Bob Dylan as an artist rather than as anyone else.

 

  1. Nickel Boys

Nickel Boys is a masterpiece, a description that hardly does the film justice. It is the only film on this list worth seeing again and again. Directed by RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys is his first narrative feature film, but his documentary Hale County This Morning, This Evening is also worth seeing many times. I enjoyed most Nickel Boys’ clash of montage with The Defiant Ones, a 1958 film directed by Stanley Kramer, expanding its historical significance and cinematic context (far from the generalizations The Brutalist enforces).