The Black & Gold Standard is an all-new VandyRadio Blog featuring general commentary and advanced statistical breakdowns following every Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball game. Robbie Weinstein of The Homefield Advantage (along with, on occasion, Max Herz and Dan Helinek) will be bringing you the best analysis of Commodore basketball throughout the season as the team chases a postseason berth for the first time since 2012. Check out the Black & Gold Standard for all kinds of new content as the young ‘Dores fight through the 2014-15 schedule.
Less than a week from Selection Sunday, conference tournaments around the country are under way. The SEC Tournament starts Wednesday at Bridgestone Arena, and Vandy faces in-state rival Tennessee on Thursday night. The Commodores have caught fire in winning 8 of 10, but can VU fight their way into NCAA contention? First, here are my seedings.
Conference Champions (projected or otherwise) in all caps. Seedings include all games through Sunday, March 8.
-1-
1 KENTUCKY
2 Duke
3 VIRGINIA
4 VILLANOVA
-2-
5 WISCONSIN
6 ARIZONA
7 KANSAS
8 GONZAGA
-3-
9 Maryland
10 Baylor
11 Iowa St
12 Notre Dame
-4-
13 Oklahoma
14 NORTHERN IOWA
15 Butler
16 West Virginia
-5-
17 Wichita St
18 North Carolina
19 Louisville
20 Arkansas
-6-
21 Georgetown
22 SMU
23 Providence
24 Iowa
-7-
25 St John’s
26 Utah
27 Oklahoma St
28 San Diego St
-8-
29 Nc State
30 Cincinnati
31 Lsu
32 Michigan St
-9-
33 Xavier
34 DAVIDSON
35 Vcu
36 Ole Miss
-10-
37 Georgia
38 Oregon
39 Dayton
40 Colorado St
-11-
41 Indiana
42 Temple
43 Texas
44 Ohio St
45 Purdue
46 BOISE ST
-12-
47 Byu
48 WOFFORD
49 STEPHEN F AUSTIN
50 YALE
-13-
51 VALPARAISO
52 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
53 LOUISIANA TECH
54 IONA
-14-
55 GEORGIA ST
56 UC DAVIS
57 WILLIAM & MARY
58 BELMONT
-15-
59 ALBANY
60 COASTAL CAROLINA
61 SOUTH DAKOTA ST
62 NC CENTRAL
-16-
63 NORTH FLORIDA
64 LAFAYETTE
65 TEXAS SOUTHERN
66 MONTANA
67 NEW MEXICO ST
68 ST FRANCIS (NY)
Out (in order of consideration): Illinois, Tulsa, Texas A&M, Miami Fl, Richmond, Old Dominion, UCLA
In short, there’s no question that Vanderbilt can ascend into the first few teams out with a strong showing at the SEC Tournament this week. Here’s how the ‘Dores currently compare with my last team in, BYU. While a team’s RPI rarely rules them out in a head-to-head comparison, VU’s weak nonconference strength of schedule rating hurts them, along with the road loss to Mississippi State in January. BYU’s biggest advantage, of course, is their road win over Gonzaga. A Vanderbilt run to the SEC title game could make things interesting, as VU’s RPI would likely rise into the low 60s. The Commodores likely would add top-50 neutral site wins over Arkansas and Georgia, along with a neutral site win over fringe top-100 team Tennessee. I’m not confident that Vanderbilt can overcome their poor nonconference schedule, but there is still time for other teams ahead of them to stumble. If Vandy were to lose in the SEC final to Kentucky, I’d give them about a 20-25% chance, at best, to get into the big dance. Of course, the Commodores still need a win over Tennessee on Thursday to be confident that the team will make the NIT. There’s no doubt the Bridgestone Arena will be the home of a lot of fun over the next few days.
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