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As conferences across the nation are roughly halfway through their respective schedules, it’s time for VandyRadio’s latest edition of Bracketology. Here are my seedings if the NCAA Tournament started today.
Through games played on Saturday, January 31st
Automatic bids via conference championship in all caps
– 1
1 KENTUCKY
2 UVA
3 Duke
4 GONZAGA
– 2
5 KANSAS
6 WISCONSIN
7 ARIZONA
8 VILLANOVA
– 3
9 Notre Dame
10 Louisville
11 Iowa St
12 Unc
– 4
13 VCU
14 Butler
15 Maryland
16 UNI
– 5
17 Utah
18 Georgetown
19 Wichita St
20 West Virginia
– 6
21 Oklahoma
22 Baylor
23 Arkansas
24 Providence
– 7
25 Indiana
26 Cincinnati
27 Ohio St
28 Texas
– 8
29 Smu
30 Sdsu
31 Seton Hall
32 Dayton
– 9
33 Oklahoma St
34 Iowa
35 Texas A&M
36 Uga
– 10
37 Xavier
38 Lsu
39 St John’s
40 Stanford
– 11
41 Colorado St
42 Miami
43 George Washington
44 Old Dominion
45 Michigan St
46 Ole Miss
-12
47 TULSA
48 WOFFORD
49 AKRON
50 MURRAY ST
– 13
51 LOUISIANA TECH
52 YALE
53 IONA
54 STEPHEN F AUSTIN
– 14
55 VALPARAISO
56 WILLIAM & MARY
57 LBSU
58 HIGH POINT
– 15
59 GEORGIA SOUTHERN
60 NC CENTRAL
61 SOUTH DAKOTA ST
62 FGCU
– 16
63 SACRAMENTO ST
64 ALBANY
65 BUCKNELL
66 NEW MEXICO ST
67 ST FRANCIS (NY)
68 ALABAMA ST
Analysis:
– With the slow but steady expansion of the NCAA Tournament to the current size of 68, some have said that the quality of the field has decreased and that the last few at-large teams are not of true NCAA quality. This year I would have to agree, as an inordinate number of teams hold multiple bad losses (losses to teams outside the RPI top 100). Most teams from the 6 seeds down have at least one bad loss, leading to lots of relatively weak resumes compared to what we have seen in past years. This opens the door for teams with uninspiring resumes that have simply been able to avoid bad losses (e.g. Baylor, Texas A&M, and Dayton) to climb higher than they would most years. This could lead to less 6-11, 5-12, and 4-13 upsets, as the current scene features a particularly strong batch of 4 and 5 seeds.
– There are nine teams vying for a spot on the 1 line, suggesting that the top of college basketball is surprisingly deep. This is a year where we could see more 1 vs. 2 Elite Eight matchups than usual, and this phenomenon leaves Kentucky with a very difficult path to the NCAA Tournament championship.
– The SEC has frequently trumpeted the league’s overall improvement this season, and with six teams on pace to receive at-large bids it certainly appears that inroads have been made. I tend to doubt that Texas A&M can hang on, however, and I suspect that at least one of Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss will end up in the NIT. This would give the SEC four bids, which is still an improvement over last year’s debacle. With numerous young, talented teams as well as multiple highly-rated recruiting classes, next year is when the conference has a chance to make some real noise nationally.
– As far as Vanderbilt goes, 10 losses on the season means they are essentially done. VU would need to go on a nearly unprecedented streak and should be eliminated from possible contention after a thirteenth loss. The Commodores would do well to make the NIT, and probably need to go 7-3 in their last 10 regular season games to do so. The second half of the conference schedule is very weak compared to the first half, so this is a possibility despite the team’s disappointing play in January.
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